US, Iran have a long road to a nuclear deal – analysis

Trump appears to be asserting that the US strikes on Iran have destroyed the Iranian nuclear program, making it less urgent for the US to reach a deal.

The US airstrikes on Iran and Iran’s response helped pave the way for a US-backed ceasefire that ended 12 days of fighting between Israel and Iran on June 24.

Qatar backed the ceasefire, but a week later, it is unclear if the US and Iran will sit down again and talk. They had been talking prior to the Israeli strikes on June 13. There had been half a dozen rounds of talks.

The Middle East and the wider global community are watching what might come next. Messaging matters from both the White House and Tehran.

For instance, US President Donald Trump appears to be asserting that the US strikes on Iran have destroyed the Iranian nuclear program. This then makes it less urgent for the US to get a deal with Iran regarding enriching uranium.

The theory is that since Iran’s nuclear program is set back many years, then the US can wait and not need to run toward a deal. Having argued that Iran’s nuclear program is destroyed, the White House would feel strange walking into a deal that discusses enrichment and other aspects of the program. In short, there’s less to talk about now.

An Iranian Shahed Drone is displayed by the United Against Nuclear Iran at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) annual meeting in National Harbor, Maryland, US, February 22, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/BRIAN SNYDER/TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Iran, meanwhile, also doesn’t seem to trust the current ceasefire and wants to make sure that if they accept a new round of talks, they won’t be bombed again. Iran also seems to feel betrayed and humiliated by the airstrikes.

This makes sense since no country wants to be bombed into submission. On the other hand, the Iranian regime wants to portray its nuclear program as less affected than the US and Israel seem to be implying. It is in Iran’s interests, apparently, to pretend it didn’t suffer many losses in the 12-day war.

However, it also has to play its cards right because if it brags about moving toward a nuclear weapon, it will possibly invite more fighting with Israel.

It is unclear if Iran will return to the negotiating table

BBC noted on June 30 that Tehran’s deputy foreign minister has said that the “US must rule out any further strikes on Iran if it wants to resume diplomatic talks.” The BBC noted that “Majid Takht-Ravanchi said the Trump administration told Iran through mediators that it wanted to return to negotiations this week, but had not made its position clear on the ‘very important question’ of further attacks while talks are taking place.”

This presents a complex puzzle. The US doesn’t feel an urgency to go back to talks. Iran doesn’t trust the ceasefire. Iran wants promises from the US. The US feels it has won and that Iran has lost, and Trump wants Iran’s regime to bend the knee. Iran, which had been stalling talks before June 12, is now not sure what to do next. This uncertainty could be bad for the region.

It’s likely that Qatar, Oman, and other countries that have contacts with Washington and Tehran would like to see some stability. If there is no deal or agreement or more talks, then the region will likely assume a new round of crisis might be coming. / jpost.com

Top 5 This Week